FOREX.com vs OANDA 2020 - ForexBrokers.com

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

Trading ForeX; A newbies report

My writing is not great, so hang in there. Also, long post.
On Feb 28 2020 I set up an account on Oanda to begin my Forex journey. A friend of mine got me into the idea, saying he has been working with his dad that does this fool* time and it's a great way to make money. "I'm no dumbo and follow wall-street bets" I says, but he assured me THIS was different.
I did some basic research (youtube) and thought to myself, heck, it's money up or down. That's tight.
I came into looking to make a little bit of money, not an astronomical amount. I have a full-time job and two kids, so I'm not looking to end up homeless. I started my account with $1k seed, and the plan was make the $1k seed money back, pull that out, and have new $1k to play with. I thought I would achieve this goal in perhaps two months time. Starting out the trades I have made has been conservative, in units of 300-500.
The very first trade I made was EUJPY @ 100 units. I lost $0.40. It was magical. I had no idea what exactly was happening and the entire dashboard was crazy looking to me. I decided then that I really wanted to learn and I took seriously to the research that I was doing. I quickly found out that the news was a great tool in making market decisions. Looking at the history of currency pairs could also aid one in making informed decisions.
At this moment I made my first self rule: Make informed and guesstimated trade decisions.
I started to journal my trades and the ideas behind making these decisions. This gave me the feedback I needed when a trade went right or wrong for me. I could go back and understand why I did that, instead of just guessing. This also held me accountable for making informed decisions, going back to rule 1.
Rule 2 came shortly after that. I was given a recommendation on a pair to go long on a pair. I looked at the data and my head said nah, don't do that. But I thought to myself, well his dad has been doing this fool* time so let's go for it. Big mistake there. That was my first true loss. Up until this point I had only taken small losses in the form of cents. This was my first double digit loss. It hurt, but not a whole lot. Rule 2: Don't blindly follow. Make your own decisions.
Two weeks have gone by and I had made $1000.00! I got my seed money back! I was feeling good and put in my first big order, 10,000 units short on USD/JPY. BIG HIT of $300+. I was sky high. I did it again alllllll the way at the bottom of what I just closed at. The next morning was rude to me. I woke up with -$400 going against me. I panicked and took the L and started panic buying trying just to make up a little bit of lost cash. I kept digging myself deeper. At the end of the day I lost around $500. I took a day or two off from that and I made my third rule: Don't panic sell or buy.
I regained my composure and studied what I felt and why I reacted the way I did. To understand that the market can move against you is fine, and if I had stuck to rule 1 of informed trades, I would have been fine. Shortly after I had a 60.000 unit USD/CAD long hit -$800. This time I did not panic and I continued about my business. That ended up being on of the most profitable trades I have had, all thanks to Rule 3: Don't panic.
My last (so far) rule was born from the deadly sin of greed. That bastard; he was hard to kill. Seeing those dollar signs go up, up, up and way is so exciting. And then physics happens. Too often have I found myself in the situation of being able to make the same trade multiple times just because of the swing. This doesn't happen all the time and you can't really know if it is going to happen, but sometimes it's pretty easy to see.
Rule 4: Take the profit.
Now, I sell when I feel like I need to sell. If my gut says end it, I end it. I don't have remorse if I end a trade early. I came out with money I never had and I didn't lose money I never had either. Win/Win.
It is now 2 days away from being a month since I started trading. In that amount of time I have ended up with a Realized P/L of $3,036.55 at the time of writing this post. I am not writing this to brag or to look for high-fives and pats on the back. I am not naive that all of this can go very wrong with one click of a button. But I am proud of myself and at the fact that perhaps this could become my side-hustle in conjunction with my full-time job. I am still making rules for myself and still have a lot to learn.
Happy trading, space cowboy.
submitted by turnerbackwards to Forex [link] [comments]

The Danger of the Carry Trade

It's noticeable that more and more people in Forex are talking about the so-called Carry Trade or Cary Trade strategy - some know nothing about it, some advice them to use it... I've commented on the matter elsewhere but think it's worth a separate post, thus I do it:
The Carry Trade (Strategy) was very profitable prior to the Financial crisis - I could buy a small new car only on swaps every year from a 20K deposit! Since around 2008/9 it's being squeezed out as the interest rates are gradually reduced globally - this is due to the global economy is cooling down. This alone hit the most all the Currency Hedge Funds... My records show that for example Oanda's combined for all the currencies positive swap dropped 2.5 times in the last three month!!! For you as a novice fx trader the main danger of this carry strategy is that countries with high interest rates will inevitably cut their interest rate rather sooner than later. Thus, for example, if you sell USD/TRY to capitalize on an attractive positive swap it may soon mean for you that you are left with a huge minus generated by your sell-positions and a tiny plus swap (in relation to the minus). And you can't close those sell-positions with profit for god know how long - and imagine some economic turmoil during that time with volatility shooting up 10 times, or a flash crash etc... Buy the way Turkey cut its interest rate in September and brokers cut their positive swaps 2 times in response (!)... Nowadays the Carry Trade has lost its shine for most pro traders as there are other strategies generating superior returns, but for a novice it is useful to learn about it.
P.S. Those currency pairs with the better positive swap are the most volatile.
submitted by tacetfx to Forex [link] [comments]

Recession Imminent

Introducing the newest brand of full-blown autism™, I present to you the California / Europe ultimate bear portfolio! Based on a special blend of my extra chromosomes and a spicy mix of hate for California, this portfolio will blow average market returns out of the water based on the following assumptions (Cetaris Paribus):
  1. The world will enter a large economic recession within the next 12 months.
  2. Many Currency values will fall relative to others, however the Euro will be hit among the hardest.
  3. As unprofitable companies no longer have access to liquid credit or financing they will have to restructure their debt in some form.
  4. The highest density of unprofitable companies will continue to exist in California, and local California municipalities will not plan accordingly for a recession.
  5. European markets in general will fall quicker and with more momentum than US equity markets.
Feedback and thoughts requested please.

Symbol & Exchange Description Instrument Position Strategy Allocation (%)
CHF/EUR FOREX ICE Swiss Frank vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 10
6EH2021 CME Euro Futures March 2021 Futures Contract Short 10
FXE NYSEARCA Invesco Currency Shares Euro Currency ETF ETF 15JAN 2021 $98 Strike Put Contract Long 10
GBP/EUR FOREX ICE Pound Sterling vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 15
USD/EUR FOREX ICE U.S. Dollar vs Euro Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 5
CMF NYSEARCA California Municipal Bond ETF ETF Short 5
PZA NYSEARCA Invesco Nation AMT-Free Muni Bond ETF ETF Short 5
AUD/USD FOREX OANDA Australian Dollar vs U.S. Dollar Currency Pair Currency Pair Long 5
EZU BATS iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF ETF 15MAY2020 $37 Strike Put Contract Long 15
GDX NYSEARCA VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF ETF 15JAN2021 $35 Strike Call Contract Long 20
Edit: Typo, wrote put instead of call for GDX. Shame tables don't copy over from word / excel and you have to retype yourself.
submitted by chaney3 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Some tools free from Onada's site.

I am not associated with Onada in any way, just thought these were interesting and didn't know about them until recently.
Volatility Graph: Zero in on which currency pairs show the most significant price fluctuations over various time periods.
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/currency-volatility
 
Currency Correlation: See how currency pairs have moved relative to each other https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/currency-correlation
 
Candlestick Patterns: See candlestick patterns plotted over recent currency movements.
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/candlestick-patterns
 
Currency Strength Heatmap: See the percentage change and rank of each currency relative to other currencies traded against it.
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/currency-heatmap
 
Market Trading Hours: See global forex trading hours and statuses.
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/market-hours
 
Official Economic Figures: Access more than 150 economic figures from the world's major markets.
https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/economic-indicators/
 
OANDA Forex Open Position Ratios: A summary of open positions held by OANDA clients
https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/open-position-ratios
 
OANDA Forex Order Book: A 24-hour summary of open orders and positions held by OANDA's clients.
https://www1.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/forex-order-book
 
edit: Article about: Using Oanda’s Orderbook To Trade Stop Hunts
https://www.forexmentoronline.com/using-oandas-orderbook-to-trade-stop-hunts/
Again, interesting but i'm just starting out, little to advanced for me right now.
submitted by Oatmeal_or_Porridge to Forex [link] [comments]

Questions RE algo trading "non home" currencies

Hello Forex, long time lurker of this subreddit and thank you all for the valuable insight.
I have an algo system currently working on a few pairs all tied to my "home" currency (USD). My system does best when things are most volatile and I'm having a difficulty understanding how the brokers handle trading in pairs that require a "double hop" to my home currency, if that makes sense.
Here's an example:
I get a positive long signal for GBPJPY, now entering would require taking the USDJPY price into consideration. I'm currently using Oanda and I can't really tell how they calculate the "home currency" conversion. I'm not sure if that's just built into their spreads, or it just calculates it dynamically during a GBPJPY transaction.
What I assume is happening:
- I BUY GBPJPY
- Oanda behind the scenes purchases USDJPY, and then proceeds to enter GBPJPY
But I cannot see any of those details in my account (the price of the USDJPY conversion). All I see are the GBPJPY transactions. I can't imagine I don't have to deal with the double volatility while trading in a pair outside of my home currency.
Hopefully this question makes sense.
submitted by estimated1 to Forex [link] [comments]

[Request] I was looking for some insight on low spread brokers in the US.

Hey everyone.
I’ve been trading crypto for a while and have been out of the forex game for a bit and was hoping to get back into it since the crypto market has been flat for so long but I ran into some trouble when trying to find a new broker. The 2016 ruling on eligible participants put my previous broker out of business and made it impossible for me to trade with certain brokers such as Interactive Brokers.
I was looking for a new broker that has low spreads which seem to have all but died in the US. I’m okay with commissions but the spreads at Oanda, forex.com, TD, and Ally are all way too high for my blood; especially for my bread and butter pair GBP/USD. ATC brokers actually seems like a pretty good brokerage for my needs but after some research I found troubling news with their bankruptcy and I don’t quite understand how an introducer brokerage works. (maybe the answer lies with ATC and you guys can take my mind off the drawbacks.)
I have a pretty decent strategy that after back testing with commissions and spreads equal to ATC’s under sub-par* conditions has max 30% drawdown, avg 15-20% profit per month, and 1.23 sharpe over 10 years. The downside of this is that with my strategy I have a very tight stop, 6-12 pips most of the time. The larger the spread the worse off I am. A 10$ per lot commission is nothing compared to an additional pip of spread in my case.
Can anyone suggest a US brokerage that suits my needs other than ATC or do I have to take the risk on them not going bankrupt again?
*Sub-par trading conditions include 3x the avg spread taken into account as slippage, including Friday as a trading day even though the strategy doesn’t work near the weekend, and optimized for a different timeframe and currency pair.
TL;DR - Is ATC Brokerage the only low spread broker for the US and are they trustworthy?
submitted by GgMc to Forex [link] [comments]

Discrepancy between MT4 (Oanda Demo account) profit value and Oanada profit calculator

When looking at profit values in MT4 vs Oanda's profit calculator I am getting different results.

Today I was stopped out of a short position in EURNZD.
I entered the trade at 1.70551 for 32000 units (0.32 lot)
the trade was closed at 1.71450
my account currency is CAD, NZDCAD at the time of close was 0.90274 ( I found this by drilling down to a 1 minute chart to get a close a value as possible, is there an easier way to find a pair value at a specific time?)

MT4 says my profit (loss) is -284.72
But I get -259.7 using their calculator: https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/profit-calculato
Checking their formula in a spreadsheet gives the same value: (Closing Rate - Opening Rate) * (Closing {quote}/{home currency}) * Units

Does anybody else have this issue, or am I missing something?
submitted by Brian_FX to Forex [link] [comments]

Transitioning to forex from crypto: what fundamentals should I worry about? Any other suggestions?

Hello,
Crypto can be quiet as hell sometimes and it's like squeezing blood from a stone with tiny moves. So, I've been doing Oanda demo using my pro Tradingview account. Only EUUSD so far but thinking of adding JPY, GBP, and CAD to my pairs since they're often recommended to beginners.
Question- how much should I pay attention to FA? Do you guys typically open any currency/forex websites for news before trading, or do you trade blind? In crypto, I open up a chart, mark my levels, look for divergences, and am in a trade within minutes. Not sure if that's possible with forex though.
Do you avoid trading at any times?
Do you guys have any suggestions here, or on any other suggestions transitioning from crypto? It's been fine so far. Starting with $250 account to see how far I can build up while trading crypto for my income.
Thanks.
submitted by CentreLeftRight to Forex [link] [comments]

Currency exposure offsetting for margin positions

Hi All,
I unfortunately have zero experience in the forex markets, and I am unsure if something like this has already been asked and answered a dozen times, but I have a question I am hoping you can help me with.
I would like to know if there are forex brokers out there that provide margin based on net currency exposure and not just currency pair position exposure. For example, say I have the following positions:

Pair Price Position (+ for long; - for short)
EURUSD $1.1552 +€100,000
GBPUSD $1.2914 -£89453.3
EURGBP £0.8937 -€100,0093

I apologize if I screwed up the quoting conventions, but the idea is that I have entered into three leveraged positions with effectively net zero exposure to any of these currencies. If these positions could be settled as is, I would be left with close to a zero net change in my brokerage account. I am wondering if there are forex brokers that will give a trader back some margin to be used to open other positions when existing positions like these are open. I understand that there is still some risk that one of these pairs can become dislocated from the market, but I would assume that to be swiftly corrected by arbitrageurs. If this is a stupid question because many brokers do this (I only briefly looked at OANDA's margin requirements), please point out to me a link or document that goes over the mechanics of this. If no brokers do this, I am curious to know why you think they don't.
submitted by funkinaround to Forex [link] [comments]

Exploiting forex arbitrage opportunities using cryptocurrency?

Hi all, I had an interesting thought this morning and would like to get some feedback on the idea.
Say I bought 1 unit of some crypto at a price of USD$100 and then saw that the Euro price was EUR€85. This would represent a EUUSD exchange rate of 1.1764, while the actual exchange rate (at the time of this post) is 1.1811; from what I understand, this is a fairly sizable spread in forex. If I then went from crypto to EUR, I would have effectively bought into EUR at this lower exchange rate and made some money on arbitrage.
My plan ATM is to create a package in python that would scan through a list of crypto exchanges, returning a list of the most favorable exchange rates for USD/X (X could be GBP, JPY, EUR, whatever). It would also be connected to Oanda, comparing these currency pairs to determine if there is an arbitrage opportunity. If so, a USD -> Crypto -> X trade would be executed on the crypto exchange, then an X -> USD trade would be executed on Oanda
Is there something I'm missing here? Part of me thinks that adding the extra element of forex is just overcomplicating things, so I wanted to get some feedback from you all. I also realize that transaction fees would cut into my profits, but large trades could deal with that issue somewhat.
Thanks in advance for the help!
submitted by Kerr809 to algotrading [link] [comments]

Forex vs. Futures. Questions...

I'm thirsty to learn a new technical skill and trading is right up my alley.
However, I'm doing my due dilligance and will be paper trading for a long time while I study, practice and educate myself.
However the biggest question ultimately will be "What will I trade?" And I've narrowed it to E Mini S%P Futures or Forex.
The attraction to both is a) Smaller capital requirements, meaning I can persue this as a hobby and keep the bankroll still at a 'fun' level (5k or so to start I'm expecting) b) Simplified analysis - what I mean by this is I don't want to be hunting for stocks, or companies and doing hours and hours of research and homework every morning and at night.
I'm an obsessive guy and I'll 100% be the guy who can't put his ipad or laptop down because I'm still reading the latest business news.
Going with Forex I can choose one single pair and just become an expert of it. Futures is the same thing in that the S&P is one chart. That's it. Simple.
The time wasted hunting down company stock to swap can be used on working on a strong trading strategy, or refining my risk management technique.
However, between the two I'm having a much harder time figuring out where to go with this.
For the time being I'm relegated to web based platforms, so I'm likely going to try Oanda first since their web client is clean and quick. They offer all the big currency pairs, as well as the S&P E-Minis Futures board.
If I went with Forex, the currency pairs of most interest are either EUUSD or USD/CAD.
I'm not sure which way to go. Any tips or insight?
submitted by Crowside to Daytrading [link] [comments]

New to Forex, how did you all decide which pairs to focus on or do you monitor a few and wait for the appropriate signals?

Hi all,
New to both trading and Forex. I'm curious how many of you trade a single pair? If you do, how did you decide upon it? Demo trading with your strategy on multiple pairs for a given time and choose the best one? If you trade multiple, is it just monitoring a few and waiting for the correct signal from one to enter?
I've just created a demo account on Oanda and am building my strategy on MT4. From very preliminary work, I think the best pair for my strategy would be the most volatile. What are some good resources on current volatility? Does anyone use this Oanda one? As a rough estimate, if my strategy is most successful with more volatility, should I use the most volatile pair from the previous day and trade with that for the current day?
submitted by turduckenpillow to Forex [link] [comments]

[Newbie] Please comment on my trading strategy. Thanks

Hi guys, I've recently taken up intrest in the forex trading market. I have created a 800USD demo account with OANDA to try out a few trading strategies. I've been doing something that gives me quite good returns and I thought that I must be doing something wrong. The only indicator I use is the RSI. So my strategy goes something like this.
  1. Find a Pair, be it metals or currency, that has a RSI around 70 or around 30.
  2. Place a buy order with a volume of 0.3 if it's near the 30's range and set a take profit of 4 pips.
  3. Place a sell order with a volume of 0.3 if it's near the 70's range and set a take profit of 4 pips.
  4. Rinse and repeat
Because of this, I do not have a preferred currency pair that I trade often. I just go with the RSI readings. I've been consistently seeing that the RSI values bounce back to normal ranges shortly after touching the 30 or 70 mark. My question here is that, what are the potential by problems of using this strategy long term and what is the risk of me losing my margin. Im sorry if anything I say is wrong or irrelevant, I'm new to this, your expert guidance would be much appreciated.
Edit : Changed an incorrect value
submitted by bluevacummpump to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex experience so far

So I just thought I would just give an update about my forex trading experience so far. I currently trade on Oanda and have been rather satisfied with my experiences. I started on March first with 1,000 in my account and I currently have a net gain of 2,500. I have also withdrawn my original 1,000. So I would deffiently say it has been a good experience so far. I have also had my fair share of losses during the month but at least the wins came out on top. I would be interested to hear what some of your experiences have been.
Edit/Addition: My strategy is still a work in progress. During the first weeks i had very poor money management skills that led to some losses. I quickly learned the importance of Stop loss and my best friend the trailing stop. For the most part i use the downtime on the weekends to do my analysis and make my trades through the week based on my diagnosis. I trade primarily the NZD/USD pair (I would also recommend other new traders to find a currency pair they like and try sticking to it and learning as much as possible about it) i use this pair because it has the most appropriate volatility for my strategy. I make an average of 1 or 2 trades a day and some days i will make zero trades. I wait until the currency is at the most volatile point of the day and then make my trade. I usually set my stop loss at 20 pips (providing I am not trading a related news event in which case i would increase it to about 30 or 35 pips) I then watch the market and if I reach 6 pips profit I place my stop loss to my entry point in case the market turns against my position i will then break even. I then continue to watch the market and if i have moved to 12 pips of profit I set a trailing stop of 12 pips. After I have done this I will take no further action on my trade, I then let the market run its course comfortable knowing that i am not at risk of any losses but still assume a position where i can accumulate any amount of potential profits.I still think I have many flaws in my strategy and I also feel that i am still assuming too much risk during each trade. It is still a work in process and I will be modifying it soon but so far it has seemed to work. The vast majority of my losses where for attempting to trade news events and most of my regular trades tend to break even or at a profit of 1 or 2 pips. But my success has been through the trailing stop and letting my winners ride to high profits. I would also say the most important things I have learned is not to trade based off of emotion and that losses are just a part of FOREX trading. I use the FX Trade platform on OANDA and strongly recommend using the app for price alerts. Good luck to all and I will try to keep updates on any progress. Fell free to ask anymore questions and or critique my strategy because I know i still have much to learn.
submitted by Lonestarr929 to Forex [link] [comments]

Can't view volume in Thinkorswim?

Possible (probable) noob question here, but why I can't I view the volume for a given currency pair chart in Thinkorswim? It says that volume isn't displayed because some bars are equal to zero. While I understand what that means in and of itself, there doesn't seem to be an option to override that parameter. Obviously, forex is OTC, but shouldn't it provide volume for TD Ameritrade trades like Oanda does for its transactions?
submitted by Gretschish to Forex [link] [comments]

Unit vs LOT on the example of Oanda - Beginner

Hello!
So, i'm in the beginning steps of becoming a successful and a great Forex trader and currently just starting out with a demo account testing out patterns and getting the hang and feel of the market.
Currently, i am using Oanda as a platform which i actually found doing weeks on research for a great broker and i just love the platforms analystic tools (which seem to be same for a lot of the different platforms) + the pricing seemed okay i guess.
Anyway, this brings us to today. As i am starting to trade gold for the first time, i notice that the buy form contains a field called "UNITS". I've noticed it before trading currency pairs but haven't really put thatmuch thought into it. Until now, when I'm starting to trade a thing that is valued 1215 not 1.215.
So my question - Does this mean that if i would start out micro trading eg. $200 on the account, i would not be able to trade gold? As i would need $1215 on my account for 1 unit?
Cheers!
submitted by FitnessSmurf to Forex [link] [comments]

Can’t view volume for currency pairs?

Possible (probable) noob question here, but why I can't I view the volume for a given currency pair chart in Thinkorswim? It says that volume isn't displayed because some bars are equal to zero. While I understand what that means in and of itself, there doesn't seem to be an option to override that parameter. Obviously, forex is OTC, but shouldn't it provide volume for TD Ameritrade trades like Oanda does for its transactions?
submitted by Gretschish to thinkorswim [link] [comments]

GBP/USD Technical & Sentiment Analysis (16 Feb 2014)

Hey guys. I don't usually do GBP/USD, but it's suddenly become one of the most interesting pairs in my opinion, because I believe some very big moves are afoot. I'm going to mostly be looking at the long term view in the context of market positioning, so this might not be all that helpful for scalpers ;)
I want to start with the Daily FX SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) reading for GBP/USD, which is quite something: http://i.imgur.com/pFcbIij.png (© 2014 DailyFX)
There are 9 traders short for every one long. Basically the entire retail crowd is betting against the trend. This means that the majority of orders in the market will be stop losses near current levels.
Also worth a watch is John Kicklighter's video for the week, focusing on the S&P and GBP/USD: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2014/02/14/Forex_Weighing_Reversals_for_SP_500_USDollar_GBPUSD.html
For those new to this kind of thing, sentiment analysis is just analysis using what you can know about market positioning, and how the market generally "feels" about a currency pair. Usually SSI gives quite reliable indications of when a trend will continue, because the majority of retail traders will start betting against it. Their stops add fuel to the fire when it continues. (This is also why I'm short AUD/USD - 2 traders long to every 1 short. Not extreme yet, but it means there are lots of stops below).
Before I get into too much detail there, here's the weekly chart: http://i.imgur.com/Ef4VRQf.png
(Yes I'm long)
I've put some tentative levels there, but I'll do more precise ones in a minute. As you can see, price is breaking out of a long term wedge. It hasn't quite cleared the range yet, and 1.700 is a massive wall to get over. There will be enormous interest at this level, not to mention some extremely large option barriers.
But I think it will break it eventually. Why I think it will go higher? Well, market positioning for one, but also this:
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/24551832014/sterling-at-fresh-3-year-highs-eyes-more-gains/?cid=0000215115
Good analysis piece pointing out that GBP/USD is only about 6% away from the 200WMA. Deviations from this average have historically been much larger. Since price is clearly moving away from this level, I believe we can expect quite a large move as the market unwinds its short positioning.
A look at Oanda's orderbook (or the order boards posted at ForexLive) can give us a more precise view of where these orders are sitting:
http://i.imgur.com/FEn4h3O.png
Current Positioning & Open Orders
As you can see the market is severely short, mostly from the last 100 pips or so. 1.6600 is an area where a lot of positions, both long and short, were established.
There are clusters of buy stops above 1.6700 (small), 1.6750 (bigger) and then above 1.6900 there are two large clusters of buy stops.
Further, there are more buy stops above current price than there are sell orders, meaning that there is ample room for price to continue higher. They're mixed in with some mid-weight sell orders around 1.6800, so this is a level that should provide resistance.
Going a bit lower, we find that bids (both those wanting to initiate new positions and those wanting to take profits on short positions) should provide extreme levels of support.
These are in at about every 10-15 pips between 1.6600 and 1.6500, with the largest cluster being at 1.6500. Going on this alone, buying any dips below 1.66 looks really good.
Beware the retracement
Bear in mind that there are sell stops below 1.6700 - these are the weaker longs or those wishing to enter short on a break below the figure. These could accelerate a correction down to 1.6650 quite quickly.
Here's the 4hr chart, with the largest bids and offers put in. You'll notice that they line up quite nicely with just about any other method of calculating S&R. Dashed lines are larger orders, dotted ones smaller. The big box is where there are too many orders to make lines for :P
http://i.imgur.com/C1htngr.png
Hopefully that's helpful.
Now, there's also a fundamental component to consider. The UK's recovery is looking fairly solid, while the market is very quickly losing its patience with the greenback. Over the last quarter my bullish USD bias has evaporated, as it was predicated on the market not having priced in the full effects of the taper. Now that it appears this is not the case, I have no choice but to change my USD bias to neutral/bearish. The recent soft data also indicates that the recovery is lagging that of the UK's quite badly. The market's reaction to positive US data is generally muted, and when something can't rally on good news, it's usually bad news.
Another thing to note is that the DJ FXCM Dollar Index declined throughout the last dip and recovery in the S&P - one of the longest sustained bearish moves in history. It was only half the magnitude of the other declines of this length, but most other 6-7 day consecutive declines in the dollar have preceded much greater bear waves, not recoveries. The logical thing to do is to look for a USD bounce and sell it.
We need look no further than the S&P to see what's happening here:
http://i.imgur.com/YrCT8tA.png (4hr chart with GBP/USD overlaid in white)
Sterling not quite a safe-haven yet. If 1850 goes in S&P, expect GBP/USD to continue higher. However, Daily RSI on both is currently showing bearish divergence (shown on charts - it's a daily RSI despite it being a 4hr chart)
This means that we might head slightly lower before bouncing. Trend line support for the S&P comes in at around 1775, which would imply quite a serious fall in Cable before buyers really step in.
The level I really like? 1.6475 There is a large cluster of buy orders just below 1.6500, which I believe is where the smart money is looking to enter. This move would flush out a lot of weak longs, leaving plenty of space for new positions. Sellers will also be taking a lot of profits off here, giving us a very good chance of a bounce. From there all it will take is a move back above 1.660 to really get moving.
So longer term I would look to start long positions between 1.6600 and 1.6475, with stops below 1.6250 or the 100DMA
Targets would be completely open. I will look to exit the position if and when speculative sentiment drops back to more natural levels, or perhaps even reverses. Stops will be trailed to lock in profit, but not aggressively.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

Looking for a website that plots volatility vs % price movement on a daily basis.

Hi folks. I'm looking for a plot like this. https://www.oanda.com/forex-trading/analysis/currency-volatility I would like to have the same plot for major currency pairs on a daily basis(above link is weekly). If that's going to be difficult to find, can someone guide me in the right direction to be able to make it on my own ? Thanks.
submitted by lvl18plusonly to Forex [link] [comments]

Calculating exposure - am I doing it wrong?

I have a very low-balance account ($100) with fxTrade on Oanda that I've been using to learn about Forex trading, try out crazy strategies, etc., whenever I don't have other work to do.
I've been trying to come up with a way to calculate my exposure on certain currencies, like how Oanda shows it, but I keep getting different numbers from what fxTrade reports.
My current algorithm is that first I put the desired currency instruments in a list. Then I fetch the current prices for the instruments in that list. Then, if the desired currency, say AUD, is on the left-hand side of the pair, and is a buy order, I add to a rolling sum the number of units in that currency I have; negative if it's a sell. If the currency of interest is on the right-hand side, for a buy order, I multiply the units currently held by the current price (fetched earlier) and subtract from the rolling sum; add if it's a sell order.
The output ends up looking like this, and here's my trade log, filtered by AUD, so you can see how it compares (note that the current prices in the screenshot will be slightly different than my program snapshot, since I didn't get them at the exact same time).
As you can see, my program outputs an exposure of short 6.19815, but Oanda's exposure tab reports short 7 -- so it's close, but not quite right. At first I had thought it might be some sort of rounding issue (maybe it's doing floor on -6-point-something and getting -7), but for a more dramatic example, for TRY, my program reports long 2.61587, but Oanda reports long 1 -- not within rounding error -- for these trades.
What's going on here? Is Oanda doing something weird, or is my program wrong? If I'm wrong, how can I fix it?
submitted by yoshemitzu to Forex [link] [comments]

US-based Back Office Hedging

Hey all,
I know that the "hedging in the US" question has been asked multiple times, but going through the search results on /forex I haven't found a satisfactory answer. Maybe there isn't one?
My singular interest at the moment is to find a US-based broker (or, at least, one that explicitly accepts US traders and has a history of integrity) that permits back office hedging. I heard, in the wake of the regulations that made hedging in the US illegal, that back office solutions were available, but so far, asking around multiple brokers, I am told either that it is not supported by them or that there is some roundabout "hack" to get it working.
I am currently running multiple MT4 EAs on the same currency pair, each targeting a different element in the price action... or I would be, if TradeKing had back office hedging. I was told by an Oanda rep that I could synthetically hedge by using multiple MT4 accounts all linked to my main account, but what I don't get is where the "don't worry, we'll deal with it in the back!" brokers are. I'd like my EAs to all run on the same account on the same instance of MT4, and completely ignorant that the others exist.
Are there any US-based brokers using MT4 that support seamless, completely transparent back office hedging? I'll go with Oanda if such a thing does not exist, but of course, I'd rather do less grunt work rather than more.
submitted by substandardgaussian to Forex [link] [comments]

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